There seems to be no shortage of newcomers in the field of wearable devices. From Apple, Samsung, Sony, LG to small unknown companies, anyone can play in it. But no product is as popular as a mobile phone. According to the latest data from the analysis company KantarWorldpanel, only 3 percent of American adults own wearable devices.
Wearable device
Like concepts such as the Internet of Things and VR, wearable devices will also be the focus of many companies in 2016, but if you want to know how it will develop, you should first understand how it is now, and most importantly, wearables. What exactly is a device.
What is a wearable device
The word wearable can refer to anything worn on the body, but now it mainly refers to two types of products: smart watches, and others.
Health tracking devices such as bracelets should belong to the second category, generally ranging from tens to hundreds of yuan, with functions including step counting, exercise volume, heart rate, etc., so that users can understand their health level.
The price of a smart watch generally starts from a few hundred yuan, and most of the brands are several thousand. They can receive notifications from mobile phones, such as emails, text messages, and application notifications, and some can also receive calls. Watches can often do what a bracelet can do, and may be more powerful.
In terms of sales, bracelets are now more popular than watches. A recent IDC data shows that watch sales account for only one-third of all wearable devices, and most of the other products are bracelets and other products. However, with the provision of user interfaces and functions, watch products are expected to surpass low-end bracelets around 2018. At present, more users just want to spend less money to experience functions such as step counting, rather than spending thousands more on smart watches with touch screens. However, just like the shift from feature phones to smart phones, basic wearable devices such as bracelets will eventually make more consumers want to buy more fully functional watch products.
Many analysts also believe that smart watches will evolve from an accessory to a mobile phone to a more independent device, which will perform calculations without the mobile phone. This should attract more users.
A brief history of wearables
The history of wearable originated from step counting. Electronic pedometers have gradually gained attention more than 10 years ago. In 2006, Nike released Nike plus iPod. At that time, many fans would use iPods and other devices to count the number of steps per day.
The useful products haven't come out yet, and the wearable war hasn't come out yet.
At the same time, smart watches have begun to show off. BlackBerry phones and PDAs with keyboards became popular, and the iPhone was born in 2007; Android, which initially supported physical keyboards, was also transformed into a touch-screen operating system, starting to compete with iOS.
It didn't take long for the company and consumers to realize that the relationship between watches, pedometers and mobile phones was more harmonious than they thought. Of course, each company has its own ideas on how to do it. Fitbit and Jawbone emphasize simplicity and cheapness. Blocking is only an option, and data is displayed mainly on mobile phones and computers. Pebble has adopted the same method as the mobile application, and is compatible with iOS and Android, and wants to occupy more people's wrists. Samsung and Apple subsequently joined and developed more complex watches.
Other companies involved in wearable devices include Sony, Microsoft, and a lot of obscure companies.
Pebble created the market
If there is a company that defines what a wearable device is and should be more recognized than other companies, it should be Pebble. After 30 days of record-breaking crowdfunding, Pebble let more people know the word wearable, and its products had not yet come out.
On April 10, 2012, the Pebble watch went on crowdfunding. At that time, it only hoped to get 100,000 for the first batch of products. At that time, Pebble was equipped with an electronic paper screen, connected to a mobile phone via Bluetooth, and supported iOS and Android. At that time, many people were asking: Why do you want to display emails, tweets and notifications on your wrist? Why use a watch to record how many roads have been taken? What is the use of this equipment? Although these questions are rarely answered, they cannot stop more and more people from investing money in it.
In the end, about 69,000 people supported Pebble and contributed more than 10 million US dollars. Pebble is also the first company to sell more than one million smart watches.
Apple vs. Others
Before the advent of the Apple Watch, rumors had been circulating for several years. Once companies like Pebble show that wearable devices are profitable, we know that giants such as Apple and Samsung will definitely enter the market.
By 2014, Samsung also had a large number of wearable devices that could compete with Apple's possible products, but none of them gained market recognition. So much so that everyone put their hope on Apple, hoping that its products can bring wearable devices into the mainstream market. The success of the iPhone made everyone want to see what Apple's jokes do, and it finally took out the Apple Watch at the end of 2014, but there are big differences on whether it is successful.
The useful products haven't come out yet, and the wearable war hasn't come out yet.
Apple has never revealed the sales of Apple Watch, only that the data from the first two months of sales is better than the original iPhone. iPhone continues to break sales records, and there are many potential AppleWatch buyers, but many people are unwilling to test the waters. Now when you're away from home, you can find that there are not many people wearing AppleWatch, and many people still say "Is this iWatch?" The acceptance is still worrying.
To put it simply, no one, including Apple, has won the battle for wearable devices.
The platform battle has not yet begun
Now the mainstream platforms are Android Wear and WatchOS, and the battle for smartwatch platforms should also be the two, but when the market size is still small, it is meaningless to talk about this.
Research firm IDC estimates that AppleWatch currently accounts for 58 percent of the "smart hand-worn" device market, AndroidWear watches account for about 18 percent , and Pebble accounts for about 9 percent . It also predicts that in the next four years, AndroidWear's share will continue to climb to 38 percent , while WatchOS may fall to 47 percent . Simply put, watches are likely to develop like the mobile phone market, and Apple products will eventually be surpassed by cost-effective Android opponents.
If it develops like this, Apple's wearable devices will receive new software upgrades on a regular basis, and Android watches may still have to count on the manufacturers' decisions. Fragmentation will become a serious problem as mobile phones. This will also cause trouble for consumers, who have to pay attention to what system will be compatible with what style of watches and watches, and also consider the richness of experience and applications. The battle for watches is serious, and so is the battle for systems.
Fitbit's future
No one knows who will win the battle for wearable devices, but Fitbit believes that it is ready for consumers not to buy wearable devices. The main reason why consumers do not buy wearable devices is the cost, lack of understanding of functions, and double swear words without the desire to wear a watch bracelet. . And Fitbit seems to consider these issues.
The price of Fitbit products ranges from more than US60 to US250. Except for the smart watch FitbitSurge, the functions of other products are quite simple and easy to use. It also has two different devices, Zip and One, which can be worn on clothes instead of on the wrist.
The useful products haven't come out yet, and the wearable war hasn't come out yet.
In 2014, Fitbit ranked first in the AppStore fitness app. There are reports that Fitbit accounts for 70 to 80 percent of the non-watch wearable market, and if smart watches are added, it has more users than Apple products. In addition, Fitbit spends relatively little on advertising. According to reports, its advertising expenditure in 2014 was more than 21 million US dollars. In the first month after Apple Watch went on sale in 2015, Apple's TV advertising expenses reached 38 million.
In the most recent financial report, Fitbit stated that it sold 4.8 million devices in the third quarter of 2015, and that it sold 10.9 million units for the entire year of 2014, and the total number so far is 25 million. Although there is no data on Pebble, AppleWatch and AndroidWear devices, Fitbit should be in the leading position, but it is hard to say whether consumers will continue to support it.
future
At CES in the past few years, we have seen many sports monitoring wearable products, but they all come and go in a hurry. CES in 2016 should be smarter. After all, companies large and small are expecting more room for growth in the industry, and they are all betting on personal technology.
Samsung, LG and Sony should all be ready to go. Samsung will still stick to its own Tizen platform, while LG and Sony will at least use the upgraded version of the product, otherwise I am sorry for the audience. Apple will ignore CES as always, so don't expect news about AppleWatch. Fitbit should release one or more new products, and try to define what is a real wearable product. After all, Apple's watch does not meet everyone's expectations, and other manufacturers have to play; it may also launch its own software platform to attract Application developer.
But whether or not a company interested in wearable releases new products at CES, this does not mean anything. Really easy-to-use products that can get rid of mobile phones have not yet been born, and comrades are still working hard.
Although when Apple announced that it would make a smart watch, it really attracted a lot of attention from consumers, and people thought that Apple would redefine smart watches and lead a trend of wearable devices. But just like Google Glass, applewatch hasn't changed much, and consumers still don't have a cold on wearable devices.
